Sign in
CP

CVR PARTNERS, LP (UAN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Solid quarter with pricing-led upside: Net sales $163.5M, net income $43.1M, EBITDA $70.6M, and diluted EPS $4.08; UAN and ammonia realized prices rose 52% and 33% YoY, respectively, amid tight inventories and reduced global supply .
  • Distribution raised: Board declared a Q3 2025 cash distribution of $4.02 per unit vs $3.89 in Q2, supported by $42.4M available cash for distribution and $156M cash on hand ($206M total liquidity including ABL availability) .
  • Operations healthy despite outages: Consolidated ammonia utilization 95% (some planned/unplanned downtime), 208k gross tons ammonia and 337k tons UAN produced; sales volumes modestly lower due to low inventories exiting Q2 after strong 1H demand .
  • Forward setup constructive but turnaround-driven Q4 mix: Q4 outlook calls for 80–85% ammonia utilization (Coffeyville turnaround), direct operating expenses $58–$63M, and capex $30–$35M; management expects pricing strength to persist into 1H26 .
  • Key catalysts: Continued nitrogen tightness and elevated pricing, Coffeyville feedstock-flex project (natural gas + hydrogen) that could lift capacity up to ~8%, and distribution trajectory tied to cash generation and reserves strategy .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Pricing power: “Average realized gate prices” up to $531/ton ammonia (+33% YoY) and $348/ton UAN (+52% YoY); net sales rose to $163.5M from $125.2M YoY .
    • Strong cash generation and distribution: CFO reported $91.7M operating cash flow in Q3 and $4.02/unit distribution; $42.4M available cash for distribution .
    • Execution and outlook: CEO emphasized operating focus and favorable setup: “operating the plants at utilization rates above 95%... excluding turnarounds,” and expects supportive pricing into 1H26 .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Utilization headwinds: 95% utilization impacted by “planned and unplanned downtime at both facilities”; volumes down slightly vs prior year with low inventories after strong 1H .
    • Cost inflation: DOE increased YoY on higher natural gas and electricity; preliminary Coffeyville turnaround spending also contributed .
    • Turnaround disruption: Ammonia release during early phase of Coffeyville turnaround anticipated to delay completion by “a few days,” affecting near-term utilization and costs .

Financial Results

Performance (sequential trend; oldest → newest)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Sales ($M)$142.9 $168.6 $163.5
Net Income ($M)$27.1 $38.8 $43.1
Diluted EPS ($/unit)$2.56 $3.67 $4.08
EBITDA ($M)$52.9 $67.2 $70.6
Cash from Operations ($M)$55.4 $24.1 $91.7

Margins (S&P Global; asterisked values)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
EBITDA Margin %36.8%*40.0%*43.6%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

KPI – Volumes, Prices, Utilization (sequential; oldest → newest)

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
UAN sales volumes (k tons)336 345 328
Ammonia sales volumes (k tons)60 57 48
UAN avg realized price ($/ton)$256 $317 $348
Ammonia avg realized price ($/ton)$554 $593 $531
Ammonia utilization101% 91% 95%

YoY snapshot (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Net Sales ($M)$125.2 $163.5
Diluted EPS ($/unit)$0.36 $4.08
EBITDA ($M)$35.8 $70.6
UAN avg realized price ($/ton)$229 $348
Ammonia avg realized price ($/ton)$399 $531

Drivers/notes:

  • Pricing strength (UAN +52% YoY; ammonia +33% YoY) offset slight volume softness from low inventories after strong 1H .
  • Operating cash flow surged on price/mix and working capital dynamics .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Ammonia utilizationQ4 2025—80–85% New
Direct operating expensesQ4 2025—$58–$63M New
Total capital expendituresQ4 2025—$30–$35M New
Ammonia utilizationQ3 202593–98% (from Q2 PR) ——
Direct operating expensesQ3 2025$60–$65M (from Q2 PR) ——
Distribution per unitQ3 2025$3.89 (Q2 declared) $4.02 Raised

Notes:

  • Q4 guide reflects Coffeyville turnaround timing and scope; no updated Q3 guide was issued in Q3 materials .
  • Distribution move reflects higher cash available for distribution and supportive pricing .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Supply/demand & pricingTight inventories; strong spring demand; narrower-than-usual summer fill discounts expected Tight inventories persist; UAN pricing above spring; strength expected into 1H26 Positive/tight
Geopolitics & tradeMiddle East/N. Africa gas disruptions; Russia/Ukraine impacts; tariff risk on Russian fertilizer Ongoing risk of tariffs on Russian imports; Russian UAN continues to flow; tightness sustained Mixed risk
Energy costsHigher natural gas and electricity lifting DOE Elevated nat gas/electricity; Europe ~ $11/MMBtu vs US $3–$4/MMBtu Cost pressure persists
Operations & turnaroundsEast Dubuque control upgrades; Coffeyville fall turnaround planned Coffeyville turnaround underway; brief ammonia release may delay completion by a few days Execution focus
Low-carbon/tech projectsNOx abatement units; DEF loadout; water/electric reliability; Coffeyville feedstock flexibility Coffeyville natural gas + refinery hydrogen project; potential ~8% ammonia capacity uplift; capital reserves continue Advancing
Capital allocation & reservesReserving for growth projects; maintain higher cash balances Board continues to reserve capital for 2–3 year execution ramp Ongoing

Management Commentary

  • “The goal of these projects is to support our target of operating the plants at utilization rates above 95% of named plate capacity, excluding the impact of turnarounds.” — CEO Mark Pytosh .
  • “UAN and ammonia prices increased 52% and 33%, respectively, from the prior year period, driven by tight inventory levels across the system as a result of elevated demand and reduced supply associated with domestic and international production outages.” — CEO .
  • “We are nearing the completion of the planned turnaround at our Coffeyville facility... we experienced an ammonia release, which we currently anticipate could delay the completion... by a few days.” — CEO .
  • “We expect these conditions to persist into the spring of 2026.” — CEO on pricing/supply-demand .
  • “We ended the quarter with total liquidity... $206 million, which consisted of $156 million in cash...” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Coffeyville feedstock-flex project: Detailed engineering ongoing; combination of added refinery hydrogen and partial natural gas substitution for petcoke; potential up to ~8% ammonia capacity increase; more specifics expected next call .
  • Demand/run outlook: Optimal soil conditions in Northern Plains; management expects “a big fall ammonia run,” with strong customer order book .
  • Acreage/macro: Corn acres may not fall as much as feared; trade frictions could shift mix toward corn; inventory tightness limits negative impact .
  • Imports/risk: No observed restriction on Russian UAN imports year-to-date; tariff/sanction risk would be impactful if enacted .
  • Pricing trajectory: Management doesn’t guide prices, but expects Q4 pricing higher than Q3 and constructive into spring 2026 .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus was unavailable for Q3 2025 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA (no consensus means returned). As such, formal beat/miss vs Wall Street estimates cannot be assessed. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

MetricQ3 2025 Consensus MeanQ3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($M)N/A*$163.5
Primary EPS ($/unit)N/A*$4.08
EBITDA ($M)N/A*$70.6

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may adjust: Given stronger realized pricing and tight inventories, 4Q/1H26 revenue/EBITDA expectations for peers and UAN could drift higher; however, Coffeyville turnaround utilization (80–85%) and higher DOE/turnaround expenses temper near-term EBITDA conversion .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Pricing is doing the heavy lifting: Material YoY uplift in realized UAN (+52%) and ammonia (+33%) with inventories tight and global outages supportive; this remains the primary earnings driver near term .
  • Distribution momentum: Raised to $4.02/unit on $42.4M available cash for distribution and strong operating cash flow; variable distribution policy remains underpinned by price/mix and disciplined reserves .
  • Watch Q4 execution: Coffeyville turnaround and brief ammonia release imply lower utilization (80–85%) and higher DOE/capex; sequential mix/pricing expected to help but utilization a swing factor .
  • Medium-term upside from projects: Coffeyville feedstock flexibility (gas + hydrogen) and debottlenecking could lift capacity and reliability; management continues to reserve cash to fund multi-year execution .
  • Macro sensitivities: Tariff/sanction risk on Russian fertilizer is a wild card; European gas remains structurally high-cost, supporting U.S. cost advantage/export optionality .
  • Trading angle: Near-term catalysts include realized price updates through fall application, completion and ramp post-turnaround, distribution declaration cadence, and any policy developments on fertilizer tariffs/sanctions .
  • Thesis: Tight nitrogen balances, U.S. cost advantage, and internal projects support EBITDA and distributions through 1H26, though quarterly variability from turnarounds and energy costs remains .

Supporting documents and data sourced from:

  • Q3 2025 8-K and press release, including financials, KPIs, and outlook .
  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript: operations, market context, projects, and Q&A .
  • Prior quarters for trend analysis: Q2 2025 PR and call ; Q1 2025 PR and call .